Recent record snowfalls in the Alps means Chamonix's lifts are opening next weekend. They haven't opened this early since 1999. Will it be the best season ever? Sarah Stirling gets experts' predictions on the season ahead, and tips on staying safe in early season off-piste.

"Enjoy a day ski pass at the unique price of €28, to make your first tracks of the season!"

The Compagnie du Mont Blanc are about to open Chamonix's lifts unseasonably early. Verbier opened last weekend (see video below). Courmayeur opens next weekend. But what does this herald for the coming season? Should we all be booking tickets to Chamonix, or holding off? And what are the particular dangers to look out for in early season powder?

I got in touch with the Swiss Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Europe’s leading experts in the complex field of snow science to start with.

Between a rock and a hard place

Dr Kurt Winkler, an avalanche forecaster on their team, told me that on 13 November some areas of the Alps had more snow than ever measured before on that calendar day. They’ve been monitoring levels at snow stations for more than 60 years.

WATCH: Ross Hewitt skiing powder at Verbier last weekend

The avalanche forecaster also warned: "What we expect for a longer time: gliding snow avalanches on grassy slopes."

It's a tricky one, because grassy slopes are particularly attractive early season, when the appeal of not breaking legs or skis on barely-covered rocks draws skiers to meadow-based slopes like those at Le Tour, Saint Gervais and Les Contamines near Chamonix.

Director of Chamonix’s Avalanche Academy, Stuart MacDonald, commented: "Don't forget that some of the slopes around Chamonix – the Lavancher Bowl and Grands Montets, for example — are essentially huge boulder fields in summer."

Essentially – deploy common sense and caution wherever you are.

WATCH: Skiing Le Tour last weekend. Video by Ben Tibbetts

Early season avalanche risks

“From an avalanche safety point of view, remember that the snowpack is unconsolidated early in the season, and there’s been no skier compaction either," Stuart warned.

"The arrival of heavy snow this coming weekend on a strong wind means a considerable avalanche risk." 

“That's because these conditions lead to snow getting packed together and forming slab.  There are other factors to think about, too. If you skin up and ski down where there would normally be a piste, remember that, if it hasn’t been groomed, it is still very much wild snow! Essentially – don’t let your enthusiasm outweigh your caution."

Happy as pigs in mud. Enjoying November pow. Photo: Ali Shayler

Remember last year?

Let’s not get too excited though. It wasn't as big, but at exactly this time last year, the Alps received an early dump of snow, followed by a drought of cold weather and blue skies. A similar thing happened the year before. 

Why was that a problem? Apart from the obvious lack of snow, there were longer term implications. The combination of cold and a shallow snowpack results in a steep temperature gradient within the snow.

Put simply, this is the rate at which the temperature changes as you travel down through the snowpack. Glassy, straight-edged and fragile faceted snow crystals commonly form under these conditions. It’s the kind of snow that doesn’t easily form snow balls and doesn't bond to anything easily. This weak layer then lay underneath all the following snowfalls, when they finally came.

So what do the experts predict for the coming season?

WATCH: Dave Searle powder hunting on 14 November

Predictions for the season ahead?

Stuart Macdonald: "So-called experts have said we’re looking at a cold winter. If conditions turn out to be as cold as they say, then it’s going to be a good ‘un. But if we get a long cold period with a shallow snowpack again, it could lead to faceting."

Mountain Guide John Falkiner: “We have been taking advantage of some great ski touring conditions here in the Entremont, Le Chable, Sembrancher, Orsiers areas. Verbier had a great opening weekend but is closed mid-week. The touring on the north aspects seems to be holding a good snowpack.

"However it’s been very warm the last couple of days. I am hoping we will get a follow-up storm, and not have a big drought like last year, all the way until January! No snow would mean a very unstable base of depth hoar. In an ideal world, if we get a follow-up storm there is great potential for the winter.”

Pro skier and trainee mountain guide Ross Hewitt: "It's not too cold right now, which minimises the temperature gradient across the snowpack and it's snowing frequently. If that keeps up the base will be good!"

Pro skier and trainee mountain guide Dave Searle: "It's a good base if it snows again soon. If it doesn't snow for a while that could cause some problems."

Avalanche Forecaster Kurt Winkler: “All other future developments of the avalanche danger depends on the medium and long-term weather development and are not predictable at the moment.”

Fingers crossed for more snow...

WATCH: Saturday dawn patrol at LeTour and afternoon delight at Flégère. Couldn't ask for a better start to the season. Video by Trey Cook.

And, finally, some off-piste tips from the experts

Stuart Macdonald: "Always go off-piste fully equipped with shovel, probe, transceiver and know how to use them. Always read the avalanche bulletin and learn how to plan your day properly to minimise avalanche risks. As the level of risk increases, reduce the angle you ski."

French avalanche expert Alain Ducros: "Be especially cautious to avoid remote triggering. i.e. as well as avoiding slopes more than 30° as much as possible, be wary of the bottom of those slopes. Learn how to recognise a typical weak layer and how to measure 30° in the field."

Mountain Guide Andy Perkins: "Be particularly wary of slopes steeper than 30°, slopes facing north through east when it’s cold, slopes facing south through west when it’s warm and lee slopes after wind-loading effect."

Kurt Winkler: "Consult the most up-to-date avalanche forecast at www.slf.ch or with the phone app ‘White Risk’ (also available in English). Take extra caution on steep, shady slopes in little-frequented backcountry terrain, especially for several days after the last really big snowfall."

Recommended reading for off-piste skiers: Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain by Bruce Tremper.

The BMC's Off-Piste Essentials DVD in association with The National Mountain Centre at Plas y Brenin contains essential skills and techniques for back country skiing, ski touring and ski mountaineering - inlcuding avalanche awareness.

Watch the trailer for BMC Off-Piste Essentials on BMC TV

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